Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 311
Chapter 311: Chapter 60, The New Tripartite Balance Strategy
Time flew, and before we knew it, the year had reached 1860. The first major event of the new year was that Nicholas I went to meet God.
If this had happened in any other European country, it would have been a minor issue – merely a change of Emperor, and life would go on as usual.
But in Tsarist Russia, it was different. A change of Tsar meant that Russian foreign policy was about to undergo a transformation.
As the hegemon of Europe, any shift in the Tsarist Government’s foreign policy would inevitably influence the international situation, and the Vienna Government had to prepare accordingly.
Foreign Minister Weisenberg analyzed, “Based on the intelligence we’ve gathered, Alexander II’s personality is not as dominating as Emperor Nicholas. He’s better at the art of compromise.
Alexander II’s political stance differs from that of Emperor Nicholas. He advocates for more comprehensive social reforms, and he’s against blind foreign expansion.
The Foreign Office predicts that Alexander II might reach an accommodation with the British, cease supporting the Indian rebels, and ease relations with England.
Without Russian support, the Indians can’t hold off the British, and before long, this rebellion will be quelled.
In a maximum of two more years, the British will be able to withdraw from India. Whether they will return their strategic focus to the European Continent or launch a new round of colonial expansion remains uncertain at present.
Against this background, the French are likely to accelerate their actions in the Kingdom of Sardinia.
The Paris Government has successfully persuaded countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland to withdraw their troops from Sardinia. According to the deal, after the assassins are captured, we must also withdraw from Sardinia.
Once an agreement is reached between France and Russia, and the Russians pull back their troops from Sardinia, Britain will be unable to stand alone. The rest of Europe won’t have the courage to oppose France.
Persuading the Russians is not difficult. Alexander II wants to carry out social reforms, and their biggest issue is still the lack of funds. As long as the French are willing to provide a loan, the Tsarist Government would be happy to sell off Sardinia.”
Finance Minister Karl shook his head and said, “The London Government will not back down. Providing loans to Sardinia might have been the action of previous administrations, but after all, the British Government guaranteed those loans.
The British Parliament will not assume this debt, and the capitalists will be even less likely to forgo the loans, especially when there’s a vast interest behind them.
Sardinia is now where they dump their industrial and commercial products, with exports worth millions of British Pounds every year – they won’t let go easily.
If the French take over Sardinia, all their privileges will be gone, and the loans will turn into bad debt.
The British have already lost half of Sardinia’s market and are nearing their limit of endurance.
Unless the French take advantage of the British being preoccupied with Sardinia and decisively solve the matter, occupying it and creating an established fact.
Unfortunately, the Paris Government won’t make this decision; they’re afraid of directly occupying Sardinia, which could arouse general suspicion and even trigger a war against France.”
This is the legacy of Napoleon, who left France a glorious era. He also put France under the spotlight; every action they take on the European Continent is scrutinized through a magnifying glass.
Napoleon III could not accurately assess the real stance of other countries, so he chose to play it safe. The gradual consumption of Sardinia might seem to lessen the suspicion of other countries, but in reality, it’s futile.
Whether or not Sardinia is annexed, the other nations’ suspicion of France remains. It is interests, not action, that restrain them.
Without enough benefit, and without a major country taking the lead, how could smaller nations dare to take the initiative?
Of course, it is easy for an observer to see this. If Franz were in Napoleon III’s position, he would have also chosen to be cautious, perhaps even more so than him.
The Italian Area has never been an easy place to penetrate. Even if one wanted to expand in the European Continent, pushing the border to the Rhine River would have more potential for development than advancing into Italy.
By securing the core territory and focusing on North Africa, with France’s national strength, integrating Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco into the mainland is not a problem at all.
The importance of the African Continent has been recognized by Napoleon III, who intensified the pace of colonization after ascending to the throne. Were it not for Sardinia distracting their energy, perhaps Austria would not have been the largest colonizer in Africa at that time.
Prime Minister Felix suggested a different view: “The French have made the right choice. With the current rate of gradual control, even if the British withdraw back to Europe, the French will still be able to consume half of Sardinia.
As for the remaining territory, it will be their meal sooner or later. Gradually, the British will realize that stubbornly defending Sardinia is simply not worth the cost.
The losses they suffer can be compensated elsewhere. As long as the balance between Russia, Austria and France is not broken, the British policy on the European Continent is realized, and there is no need to be concerned with the trivial Sardinia.
Yet, the French are ambitious, and once they occupy Sardinia, they will likely aim for other areas of Italy, which would cause substantial trouble for us.”
Foreign Minister Weisenberg then surprisingly proposed, “Perhaps we can strike a major deal with the French, conceding the Italian Area to them!”
Everyone’s expression changed greatly – a combined France plus Italy would be an unstoppable force.
Finance Minister Karl objected, “No, by giving up the entire Italian Area, we could indeed secure French acquiescence in our unification of the Germany Region, but what about the British and Russians?
The Kingdom of Prussia is strong, and our German Federation Empire, hastily unified, also has substantial power – but we can’t achieve quick results.
Unless we ally with one of the powers between England and Russia, any misstep could result in a combined Austria and France challenging the entire European Continent, and our odds of success would be slim.”
The proposal was indeed very tempting, but the risks were simply too high.
Franz wasn’t worried that an Austria-France challenge to the European Continent would fail – Russia wasn’t in a strong state, and without the main force, which was the bear Tsarist Russia, the odds of winning were not low.
The problem was that this was just their wishful thinking. The French public might be willing to make this trade, but the unpredictable Napoleon III was not a sure bet.
Should they be conned, they would suffer great embarrassment and may even have to relinquish substantial benefits – unless…
He couldn’t think any further; Franz immediately stopped the fantasy. International situations were beyond his control, Napoleon III’s ambitions had just been ignited, and it wasn’t time for that yet.
“Today’s discussion should be archived as top secret, and everyone should just keep it in their hearts.
The international situation is constantly changing and is beyond our control.
The unification of the Germany Region remains our core strategic objective, but how and when to unify the region must be approached with caution.
Any idea can be brought up for discussion, things that aren’t achievable today might become possible tomorrow.
What’s most important now is development, recklessly disrupting the international situation does not serve our interests. Compared with other European countries, we have significant advantages.
Population, territory, resources—these three core elements, excluding the Russians, no other country on the European Continent is our match.
The longer we drag this out, the more these advantages will transform into composite national power. The strength of the French is not far off from ours now, but after a decade the gap between us will have widened considerably.
By then, talking about this issue should be much easier. Napoleon III will not sit by idly as we pull ahead; they will have to expand if they want to catch up.”
In this era, information does not travel easily, and Austria’s economic growth data is not disclosed to the public. Other nations have not yet noticed the developmental advantages brought by population and territory.
However, this cannot be kept a secret forever. As exchanges become more frequent, everyone will surely notice the changes in Austria.
By then, Napoleon III will definitely be unable to sit still. The French, not having yet been broken, will not tolerate being surpassed and gradually declining.
They will either fight a war to curb Austria’s development or seek expansion to increase their strength.
This multiple-choice question is an easy one, especially with Mao Xiong, who has more population, territory, and resources, being an enemy of the French’s European hegemony.
Conquering by force is clearly unattainable. The Russian-Austrian Alliance has not fallen apart, and there is no chance of victory in a military action.
Even if Napoleon III does not wish to expand, fervent nationalism will drive them to the battlefield. If not external, then internal.
By then, the French Government’s options will be limited. Luring them a bit, the possibility of the two sides reaching a deal is quite high.
Finance Minister Karl cautioned, “Your Majesty, the French becoming stronger poses a great threat to us. By then, even if we have unified the Germany Region, we will be caught between the French and the Russians, which is very passive strategically.”
Foreign Minister Weisenberg explained, “On the contrary, once the tripartite division of the European Continent by Russia, France and Austria takes shape, we are actually very secure.
As long as the British have not given up on the European balance of power policy, we need not worry about being isolated. A France that has annexed the Italian Area is not the France we know now.
Similarly, the Russian Empire that has swallowed Northern Europe is not the Russia of today.
Three vast empires standing together are actually the most stable, and unless one of them encounters a problem that breaks this balance, war will not break out.
As long as we make sure that we are not the first to have problems, then the danger is still within controllable limits. From the current situation, among the three countries, we are stable.
The Russians are still in the midst of reforms, and it’s difficult to predict whether they will succeed or fail. If the reforms fail, the Russian Empire might collapse one day in the future.
Napoleon III’s position is not solid, and many within the country do not accept his rule. If they were to annex the Italian Area, this crisis would still intensify.”
One must admit, Weisenberg has quite impressive strategic insight, though it’s a bit too radical.
This isn’t a big problem, either. The Cabinet can’t possibly consist only of the cautious faction; Franz too has ambitions.
Weisenberg, only 35 years of age, has managed to stand out among many competitors. Apart from Metternich’s strong endorsement, it is his superior strategic insight that is the most important prerequisite for serving as the Foreign Minister.
Prime Minister Felix asked, “Since annexing the Italian Area has so many hidden dangers, how can we ensure that Napoleon III will be fooled?”
Foreign Minister Weisenberg explained, “Prime Minister, Napoleon III has been tricked ever since the annexation of the Kingdom of Sardinia.
In the Ausa War, the capitalists and Nobility who supported the Sardinian Government suffered heavy losses, and the governing foundation of the Sardinian Government has been shaken.
Further burdened with enormous debt, the French are now primarily using political alliances and military threats as supplementary means.
The Napoleon Family’s influence in the Italian Area is not weak. Many Italians still take pride in Napoleon, and I have reason to believe that local power factions in the Kingdom of Sardinia will turn to the French.
With the cooperation of these individuals, the French will soon be able to establish their rule in the region.
However, the calm is only temporary. The French cannot win over everyone; they will certainly have to suppress some of the authorities and cultivate loyalists to take control.
These people will not accept defeat. Under the military threat of the French, they will not dare to do anything in the short term.
We just need a short period of calm in the Kingdom of Sardinia, which can create the illusion for Napoleon III that it is his destiny.
We can also control some of the media, singing praises for him, to deepen this belief.
Once Napoleon III believes that Italians will endorse his rule, his ambition to annex the Italian Area will become uncontrollable.
But Italian nationalism has already awoken, and once the French Army is reduced or withdrawn, those unwilling to lose the political struggle will surely emerge.
For example: inciting patriotic youth to resist French rule or funding Revolutionaries, and so on.
Rebellion is contagious. If the Italian Area is in turmoil, the interior of France will not remain stable. Without decades of recuperation, France will not be able to digest the Italian Area.
If handled well, the French Empire might collapse on its own.
Of course, to achieve this, French ambition must be further stirred, only by having them annex more land can they be overstretched to death.”
Franz was delighted within himself; the Vienna Government finally had an ambitious strategist with a keen perspective! Although some of these maneuvers are still somewhat idealistic.
But then, life is inherently nonsensical; if one doesn’t even dare to dream, how could they possibly succeed?
