Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 314
Chapter 314: Chapter 1: The Outbreak of the American Civil War
Ever since the dawn of the ironclad ship era, the Austrian Navy has grown increasingly prominent. The continuous expansion of the Austrian Navy forced other European nations to follow suit.
If it hadn’t been for the distraction caused by the Indian Rebellion, the Vienna Government would have already felt what pressure was.
There were even those in the London Government who openly called for adhering to the three-power standard (exceeding the naval tonnage of the second, third, and fourth strongest navies).
Of course, these people were just talking, and in reality, the British had never achieved this.
Now, not to mention the three-power standard, Franz even doubted whether the British could achieve a two-power standard.
The combined tonnage of the France and Austrian navies was close to that of the Royal Navy. Considering the ironclad ships, the Royal Navy’s strength could no longer maintain a crushing superiority over France and Austria.
However, once the Indian Rebellion was suppressed, the British should be able to achieve a two-power standard for a considerable time in the future. In the short term, Franz wasn’t ready to provoke a naval arms race, lest he irritate the sensitive nerves of the British.
It’s not correct to say he hadn’t already irritated them, but they temporarily lacked the time to deal with it.
If it weren’t for the financial difficulties of the Tsarist Government, Franz would have been ready to help the Russians with a naval buildup and further provoke the London Government.
This isn’t contradictory. Only by provoking the British, would they invest more wealth into ironclad ships. Yet, in reality, these warships are just transitional products, and the more are built, the greater the losses when they are replaced.
If it weren’t for the intention to intervene in the American Civil War, Franz would not have gone to the trouble of producing so many ironclad ships. In terms of warship performance, it won’t be long before these vessels become obsolete.
It was the possibility of an arms race leading to war that made Franz hesitant to be the one who stood out too much. Given that it’s an England-Russia rivalry, he, of course, wanted to let the Russians take the lead.
Before unifying the Germany Region, Franz wasn’t ready for a direct confrontation with the British, as the losses would outweigh the gains.
…
In Washington, the election that would decide America’s fate had concluded. Franz’s butterfly effect had not influenced this election, and Abraham Lincoln from the Republican Party was elected the 16th President of the United States with an absolute majority.
The emergence of a president representing the interests of Northern capitalists sparked panic and hatred among Southern plantation owners. To protect their own interests, they began to collaborate.
On December 20, 1860, representatives of the Southern plantation owners convened in South Carolina and decided to secede from the Federation.
Furthermore, they issued a declaration against slavery, inviting other states to leave the Federation and join the newly founded nation—the Confederate States of America.
Once the news reached Europe, it immediately caused a sensation. Franz convened a Cabinet meeting at the first opportunity to discuss countermeasures.
Foreign Minister Weisenberg analyzed, “The American North-South conflict has a long history. The outcome of this election has shown that the Southern plantation owners have completely failed in the political struggle.
To protect their interests, they had no choice but to leave the Federation to form a new nation.
According to American law, these states have the right to secede.
However, the capitalists in the North will certainly not agree, as they still want to obtain cheap industrial raw materials and markets. If they let these states get away, all the efforts they’ve made thus far would be in vain.
Unless the Northern government compromises, there’s no way for the Southern plantation owners to go back, and Lincoln’s appeals are in fact just for show.
This North-South split is not only about the abolition of slavery issue, but more fundamentally, about the tariff issue, which he didn’t even mention.
If Lincoln promises to lower tariffs on farm products, then perhaps the Southern plantation owners’ resolve for independence might waver. Now, the two sides can only talk through war.
With the outbreak of the American Civil War, our American colonial strategy has been half realized—a divided America aligns more with our interests.
However, there’s a significant discrepancy between the overall might of the North and South. So far, only seven states have joined the Southern Government, which is hardly a match for the Northern government.”
Supporting the division of America is a given for the Vienna Government. Especially after the commencement of America’s strategy, it’s even more essential.
Minister of Internal Affairs Windischgrätz stated calmly, “On the surface, the Northern government indeed seems more powerful.
But in reality, not all the Northern states are willing to participate in this war, and most American citizens do not want a war to break out. They can only be coaxed onto the battlefield by the opinions controlled by the capitalists.
It’s different for the few Southern states; they’ve been pushed to a dead end. When it comes to their own interests, the enthusiasm of the Southern populace to enlist is much higher.
In the short term, the Southern Government is more likely to have a military advantage. If the war drags on, though, the North’s advantage in manpower will gradually translate into military strength.
I believe that as long as the Southern commanders are more intelligent, they should capture Washington as soon as the war breaks out and then negotiate with the Northern government.
After all, everybody likes to see a nouveau riche’s misfortune; the European nations will definitely support the split of America.”
Prime Minister Felix questioned, “This is difficult to achieve. Militarily speaking, the Southern Government could indeed capture Washington at the onset.
However, they have no means to prevent the American government from evacuating. The Federal states clearly outnumber those on the Southern side; the military actions of the South could instead alarm the states that are currently neutral and cause them to join in.”
The Southern Government’s power is limited; they would become exhausted after taking just a few states. The Northern government, with its substantial strength, would still overwhelm the South after regaining composure.
In fact, the key issue now is not how the North and South fight, but rather which side can pull in more allies.
There are a total of 35 states in the United States, with 16 Slave States. Currently, only 7 have declared independence; the political maneuvers of both parties to follow will be crucial in determining the outcome of this war.
If the Southern Government can persuade all 16 Slave States to join in independence, and convince a few more states to remain neutral, then the disparity in strength between the two sides would narrow.
If both sides are equally matched, under the intervention of European countries, there is still a chance to resolve the issue peacefully.”
Foreign Minister Weisenberg explained, “Prime Minister, I fear that such an ideal situation is unlikely to happen.
The Southern Government’s diplomacy is simply failing; I don’t know where they get their confidence from, but they have yet to seek our help.
I have no illusions about how many states they can persuade to join them. The capitalists in the North dominate public opinion, and if they don’t make enough efforts, I fear many Slave States will lean towards the Northern government.
After all, some Slave States also have significant capitalist power. If they react slowly, the Federal States that were initially inclined towards them might also be swayed by the Northern government.”
What gives the Southern Government confidence? Of course, it’s cotton!
In this era, about one-fifth of the population in the United Kingdom is directly or indirectly dependent on cotton textiles, with eighty percent supplied by a few Southern states.
The London Government could not possibly tolerate any disruption to the cotton supply chain, but sadly, they overlooked the cotton surplus of 1860, with a 50% backlog on the London market.
This oversight was fatal, as many capitalists saw the North’s blockade as an opportunity to deal with the backlog and make excessive profit.
With these people dragging their feet, and the impact on the cotton industry not being catastrophic, the London Government was caught in controversy and did not immediately intervene in the American Civil War with full force.
Next, just when they had finally reached an agreement to intervene with the French-Spanish, the French pulled a fast one. Coupled with the Northern government’s public relations, the London Government hesitated again.
After several hesitations, cotton from India and Egypt had already been harvested. The British capitalists’ interest in Southern cotton significantly waned, and international intervention was thus delayed further.
By the time the London Government made a decision, the Southern Government was already unable to recover.
Facing the diplomatically inept Southern Government, Franz also had a real headache. They failed to take advantage of the assets they had and squandered their opportunities.
If the Southern Government had been more proactive, whether for strategic needs or interests, everyone would have supported them.
Regardless, for the sake of striking at the Americans, Franz had to hold his nose and agree to help the Southern Government without charge.
“Have the Ministry of Foreign Affairs communicate with England and France. If we act together to persuade more Slave States to join the Southern Government, I’m sure they wouldn’t mind tricking the Americans.
Find a few newspapers to leak news of the cotton surplus and stagnation, while also highlighting reports of booming cotton production in India, Egypt, and West Africa.
Get a few experts and scholars to analyze the severity of the issue, so that the leaders of the Southern Government can sober up and realize that their cotton weapon is unreliable.”
Besides cotton, there are many agricultural products that are American specialties, but these products are also available elsewhere.
Even Franz thought about sending people to burn the British cotton stockpiles. But this idea was fleeting, mainly because there were too many cotton warehouses, and they could not be burned down by just a few people.
However, most of the cotton in the South had not yet been shipped out; if the Southern Government became vigilant and halted further cotton transport, then the British Government would still be bound to the Southern Government’s side.
After all, be it India or Egypt, growing cotton takes time, and the domestic factories can’t wait.
Historically, at the early stages of the war, there were proposals within the Northern government to intercept this part of the cotton transport fleet and cut off the Southern Government’s trade.
However, in order not to offend the British, Governor Lincoln’s administration chose to let it pass. Even during the Civil War, the North’s blockade on cotton transport was not very strict.
Otherwise, if they actually cut off John Bull’s supply of cotton, the British would have launched an offensive long ago.
There’s no doubt, although the British Army is not that great, they are still fit to deal with the Americans.
Just the Royal Navy blockading the American coast, and sending a bunch of Indian soldiers, would be enough to overwhelm the Northern government.
As for logistics and supplies, it was nowhere near as daunting as imagined. Most essential foods could be provided by the Southern Government, which was in no shortages of these.
The only things that needed to be transported from the homeland were weapons and ammunition. In this era, the consumption of ammunition in war was not great, and as the world’s largest industrial nation, the British could easily manage it.
Let’s face it, the Northern government only had a little over twenty million people. When war broke out, they were already losing several states to the South. The war potential the Northern government could muster was also limited.
Even the force that the British used to suppress the Indian revolt was enough to change the outcome of the Civil War. The American soldiers, freshly handed rifles and sent to the battlefield, had little to no combat strength.
