Holy Roman Empire - Chapter 369
Chapter 369: Chapter 56: The Poor People’s War
Vienna, Foreign Minister Weisenberg analyzed, “The Polish independence movement, while striking at the Russians, has also ignited the flames of war across the European Continent.
Influenced by the success of the Polish uprising, in recent times, revolutions have erupted frequently on the European Continent, and a new wave of revolution has arrived.
Since January, the Two Sicilies, the Papal State, Spain, and Portugal have all experienced uprisings, with varying degrees of unrest also appearing in Switzerland, France, Ireland, and other areas.
Most of these revolutionary organizations have recently returned to the European Continent from the United States, and the preliminary judgment is that the Federal government has been driven to desperation, having both the motive and strength for such actions.
President Lincoln had pinned high hopes on a decisive battle. As neither side could afford to lose, they both opted for steady and secure strategies, which directly turned this great battle into a war of attrition.
The Federal government, fearing that countries would continue to divide America, chose this moment to create chaos on the European Continent in order to distract the governments of various nations.
It’s no secret that the Americans have funded the Revolutionary Party; their influence on the party is unmistakable. It just hasn’t caused much stir until now, and this veil has not yet been pierced.
Now that things have happened, it won’t be long before the countries of Europe realize this. The Americans are likely to sacrifice these revolutionary organizations in exchange for the understanding of various countries.
If enough pressure is applied, there might even be a chance to make them pay a sum. However, with such interference, it’s probable that the England, France and Spain couldn’t increase their involvement in America in the short term.
With the current state of the Alliance in America, keeping the North and South divided is not a big issue, a result achieved by the Southern Government.
Another division of America is now beyond their power. At most, they could grant independence to the Indian Area allied with the South. However, this won’t affect the strength of the Federal government, as after the split they would still remain two medium-strong countries.
In terms of development potential, either the Northern or the Southern government has the potential to become a great power.
They have no real rivals in the American region. The division merely delays their rise to great power status. As long as they have enough population, they can develop.”
This American Civil War took many Europeans by surprise. What was thought to be a farce of a civil war unexpectedly unleashed a shocking potential for warfare.
If not for the division, the strength of the Americans would already be comparable to Spain, possessing an almost invincible presence, dominating an entire continent.
Just as everyone was conspiring to fragment the United States, the desperate Federal government made a last stand, disrupting all parties’ plans.
Prime Minister Felix added, “It’s not just foreign chaos; domestically, many people can’t hold back and are starting to stir.
These people are now secretly coordinating and it won’t be long before they make some big news. To catch these people in one fell swoop, we haven’t alarmed them prematurely.
The outbreak of the Prusso-Russian war has also tied up much of our energy in the affairs of the European Continent, and with these domestic threats emerging, we have no capacity to increase our involvement in America in the short term.”
This is using conspiracy as an overt strategy. Even knowing it’s the Americans behind this, there’s nothing that can be done about them now, and there is even no need to worry about settling scores later.
Spain has numerous internal conflicts, and with the revolutionary curtain now raised, it is uncertain when it will be quieted.
The Irish Independence Organization and Revolutionary Party are causing trouble, and with the Opposition Party pulling strings behind the scenes, internal strife is enough to keep the London Government busy for years.
As for France, given Napoleon III’s style, he is probably looking to extend his reach into Southern Italy, making a conflict between France and Austria quite likely.
With both the Prusso-Russian war and the potential French-Austrian conflict, Franz certainly does not have the courage to take risks with the Americans at this time.
By the time everyone recovers, the American Civil War will have long ended. If nothing unexpected occurs, Lincoln would have already been out, and even if the countries wanted to settle scores after the fact, it would no longer involve him.
Luckily, the Northern government’s military performance has been lackluster, failing to achieve a quick victory over the Southern Government. Otherwise, with the current power of the various countries in the American region, they might not have been able to force a compromise.
Franz thought for a moment and said, “The Italian issue can be postponed; without a call for aid from the Two Sicilian Kingdom, the French wouldn’t dare to intervene now.
Napoleon III is not foolish. The defensive alliance set up against them is still in place; continued expansion now would lead to the Anti-French Alliance soon after.
Now the intervention of the Allied Forces must proceed without issue. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should coordinate relations as quickly as possible, so as not to wait for the outcome of the American conflict, lest we face unnecessarily protracted problems.
At this point, both the North and South are already significantly weakened. Dividing America is the top priority. England shares our stance, and the London Government surely can’t afford to wait.”
European politics are changing too rapidly, and the interference by the Allied Forces could very possibly meet with mishaps. Against such a backdrop, seeking to weaken America as much as possible is extremely unwise.
If the Southern Government wins the Civil War, it would be one thing; a plantation-based economic model is limited in development potential unless they could monopolize the world’s food supply, which would then never become a world power.
Clearly, this is unlikely, as there are too many regions in the world suitable for agriculture. American agriculture indeed has advantages, but they are not significant enough to form a monopoly.
The countries are not fools; they won’t hand their lifeline over to the Americans. At least agricultural export nations like Russian-Austria would not buy their food.
Should the Northern government achieve victory, the historical United States will reemerge. Franz’s strategy in the American region can only delay the rise of the United States at most.
Even if the European Continent does not go to war, entering into the 20th century, the Americans will take the initiative to challenge the world order.
Given the relationships between European countries, Franz does not believe that they can cooperate sincerely. At least on the issue of the North American continent, everyone is happy to see the British embarassed.
Perhaps Austria might be the next unfortunate one. The Central American region is inconspicuous for now, and Alaska is worthless, but things will be different in a few decades.
The combined interests of these two areas could rival those of the British. Yet whether England and Austria can suppress the Americans in North America, Franz has his doubts.
After all, with that kind of social system in America, it is very difficult for them to take strategic risks without full confidence.
History shows that after the end of World War I, they had the power to dominate the world, but they endured until after World War II before they erupted.
Domestic conflicts were directly ignored by Franz. The net was already set; all that was needed was for the fish to take the bait. If there were still problems, it would mean that his reign as Emperor was a failure.
After this wave, the last obstacle to national integration would no longer exist. As powerful as nationalism was, it took time to spread.
If there were any survivors who dared to cause trouble in secret after this wave, they would be true warriors.
…
In St. Petersburg, Alexander II’s temper had been flaring up more and more recently, with the Palace’s pots and pans bearing the brunt.
The poor performance of the Russian Army on the battlefield had left him thoroughly disappointed. Fortunately, the Kingdom of Prussia had not been able to carry out military reforms smoothly due to financial reasons, and only accomplished a downscaled version of the reforms before the outbreak of war.
Overall, both sides had fought to a draw. This outcome was already sufficient for the Berlin Government; their intent had been to wear down the Russians all along.
With the backing of England and France, there was no need to risk a decisive battle with the Russians. If they had impulsively defeated the Russian Army, the infuriated Tsarist Government would have ensured a fight to the death.
For the Russian Empire, a loss of a few hundred thousand troops was no big deal. But the Kingdom of Prussia could not afford such losses.
The Russian Army was no pushover; as long as the commanders did not make fatal strategic mistakes, the exchange ratio on the battlefield would not be too disparate.
The Near East war is a case in point: in field battles between the Anglo-French forces and the Russians, the usual ratio was about 1.5:1; on the other hand, ratios of 3:1 or even 4:1 were common when defending.
If one rashly attacked, they would find that defeating an enemy army was easy, but annihilating them was hard. In an era without airplanes, tanks, or machine guns, infantry leaving the safety of their forts would inevitably be at a disadvantage against cavalry on the open plains.
The current situation was 546,000 Russian troops vs. 328,000 Prussian Army troops + 231,000 Polish Revolutionary Army troops, with both sides having fought to a draw, the Russians even suffering a slight loss.
“Who can tell me, what kind of battle is this?”
Facing the Tsar’s towering rage, everyone tacitly lowered their heads.
Initially, it was thought that this war could be won easily. Instead, over a month into the conflict, not only had they failed to bring the war to the Kingdom of Prussia, but they were also being forced to retreat from Poland.
Army Minister Nicholas-Cage bravely explained, “Your Majesty, the Warsaw region is filled with rebels. While fighting the enemy, we had to divert a considerable amount of troops to transport strategic materials.
General Fitzroy chose to contract the battle lines because the Warsaw region was not suitable as a battlefield. In order to avoid giving the enemy an opportunity, he decided to concentrate the battle in East Prussia.”
Now, with guerrilla fighters everywhere in the Warsaw region, the Russians couldn’t enjoy the advantages of fighting on home soil; instead, they were submerged in a vast sea of people’s warfare.
Militarily speaking, temporarily abandoning the Warsaw region and focusing the strategic effort on East Prussia carried no issues.
Compared to the Polish Revolutionary Army, the Kingdom of Prussia was the real thorn in the side. As long as the Prussians were defeated, the Polish Revolutionary Army would not last long.
Moreover, the Polish independence movement was launched jointly by multiple revolutionary organizations. In the face of crisis, they could cooperate sincerely, but once the threat from the Russians diminished, they would fall into internal strife.
After the uprising erupted, in order to attract more people to join, the Polish Provisional Government even promised conditions such as land grants and the implementation of Labor Protection Laws.
These terms severely harmed the interests of capitalists and the nobility, who did not endorse them; the Rebel Army was divided from the start.
It was one thing to make promises verbally, but if they tried to fulfill these conditions, the Rebel Army would inevitably undergo internal strife. Regardless of which faction won, the Rebel Army’s strength would be significantly weakened.
If the proletarian faction failed, these conditions could not be fulfilled, and the motivation and morale of the Rebel Army would immediately disperse; if the nobility and capitalists failed, the Tsarist Government would have guides.
This decision, correct in a military sense, was a political blunder. Domestic conservative nobility constantly jumped up and down, causing trouble for Alexander II, attributing the defeat on the battlefield to reforms.
Alexander II was not a fool blindly seeking political victory; he was very clear that a temporary gain or loss meant little, and the ultimate outcome of the war was key.
“Hmph! Tell General Fitzroy, I don’t care at what cost, but he must quickly bring the war to the territory of the Kingdom of Prussia.
If the main forces cannot break through the enemy’s defenses, then send small groups to create chaos, weakening the enemy’s war potential as much as possible.
The Prussians have secured support from England and France and want to drag the war out; we cannot afford to give them this opportunity.”
A poor man’s war must be quick and decisive. As long as the war drags on, it spells failure for the Tsarist Government.
Because of this war, Alexander II had no choice but to put the next phase of his reform plans on hold, focusing all his efforts on raising funds for this conflict.
The early setbacks of the Russian Army were largely due to a lack of funds. Fighting in the Warsaw region, the loss of materials in transit was too great, exceeding the Tsarist Government’s capacity to bear.
Fitzroy, under immense pressure, abandoned the Warsaw region because of supply issues. With the government strapped for cash and only a limited amount of strategic materials at hand, a loss in transit would be very difficult to replenish on time.
Under the implicit direction of various government departments, Fitzroy had to make this decision. Alexander II was well aware of these issues but could not stop them, even though he understood them.
The funds currently collected by the Tsarist Government did not even amount to half of what was gathered before the Near East war, making the continuation of the war extremely difficult.
